After a significant increase from 2022 lows in Q1 2023, the price of one bitcoin is currently trading at around $28,000, holding comparatively steady.
Not only is a new quarter starting, but data indicates that BTCUSD is also entering its most bullish month ever.
Historical April Bitcoin Performance is No Joke
Serial correlation and seasonal analysis show that April has historically been the strongest month of the year for BTCUSD. There is no explanation for this phenomenon, but if it persists, Bitcoin may be about to begin a more significant bull trend.
Since BTC had a price to trade at, the table below highlights April performance every year. The data starts with April 2011, when the value of the emerging digital currency increased by more than 343%.
| Year | April Percentage Change |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +343.45% |
| 2012 | +1.37% |
| 2013 | +46.9% |
| 2014 | -2.56% |
| 2015 | -3.91% |
| 2016 | +7.87% |
| 2017 | +27.02% |
| 2018 | +33.24% |
| 2019 | +29.83% |
| 2020 | +34.3% |
| 2021 | -1.58% |
| 2022 | -17.41% |
This represents a total April return of 537.94%, or an average of
44.83% upside in the month over the years. This even includes information from bear markets, such as the 17% decline in 2022.
Financial performance frequently repeats with unusually precise timing. For instance, the January Effect causes a sharp rise in the prices of small-cap stocks and alternative currencies.
Why couldn’t there be significant bull movements in April if Bitcoin historically topped in November or December? History does tend to repeat itself, but past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes.
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Source: TradingView.com
BTCUSD Analysis: April Showers May Bring a 44% Price Increase
A 44% increase in BTCUSD would lift the leading cryptocurrency above $40,000 for the first time since — interestingly — last April 2022. The market for cryptocurrencies fell by 17% in that month, breaking through descending support.
In the two months that followed, the price fell dramatically by an additional 46% as a result of the breakdown below the support trend line. From the close in April 2022 to the bottom reached in November, BTCUSD fell by a full 58%.
Since the beginning of November, Bitcoin has increased by almost 80%, and if another 44% were added on top of that, the value of BTC would have doubled by the end of this month. However, only if BTCUSD increases the price by that average.
Will April pull the rug out from under the market with its positive data? Or will the occurrence be credible enough to spark a sizable rally?
